What’s up! This is episode 93 of Payne Points of Wealth and we’ve heard a lot about recession, but it seems like the economy is more resilient—probably the correct R word to be using right now—as we’ve seen a labor market that is the hottest it’s been in 50 years. We’ve never seen a recession when unemployment was going down and that’s what we are seeing today, employment going down. We’re seeing inflation numbers come down, as we’ve told you they would. So what does it mean for the rest of the year? Are we going to get this recession? Are we still in an economic boom? What do you make of it? On the Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about how your financial independence plan is like putting together a jigsaw puzzle. We’re going to help you frame it, visualize it, and show you how to get financially independent as soon as possible. Check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in…
The surprises always come in the positive [2:42]
This time next year [6:06]
History teaches us everything [9:01]
The Tipping Point [12:26]
Begin with the end in mind [13:50]
Not good or bad…just appropriate [17:11]
Hidden Facts of Finance [21:06]
The Market is always right!
Companies are profitable, 77% of companies reported better than expected profits. Even though we had a negative GDP number, we have an economy that’s growing, slowing, but still growing. Inflation is still raging, but we had two good inflation numbers this week that brought inflation down from last month’s readings. Maybe we have peak inflation. Maybe we have peak hawkishness on the part of the Federal Reserve and it’s time to start thinking about all the positive news that’s going to be coming out going forward.
That’s where markets trade, right? It’s that gap between what the expectations are and what reality ends up being. That’s what we saw this last week, expectations that inflation was going to be higher. Now, reality tells you that it’s not as bad as you think. It is starting to slow. The 10-year treasury, as we’re recording this, is only around 2.8%. That’s not pricing in 8% inflation going out into the future. The market’s always forward-looking. The market’s always right. If the market’s going up, the market’s telling you that inflation is coming down, it’s moderating, and the economy is probably stronger than what we’ve been hearing.
This week